Nothing fixed yet except a White House boardroom deal has been done which generally speaking could take US domestic refiners out of RINs picture – they will just produce gasoline or diesel.
Blenders now will have no one to sell the RINs to since they will be new obligated party so they will have to pass RINs costs directly to consumers which they were mostly doing anyway in order to make some extra bucks. So refiners get rid of some costs and pass it along to blenders who will have to offset it by buying gasoline at lower price from refiners…. this appears to be a zero sum game and perhaps refiners might end up losing even more than what they are saving?
I think this new mandate scheme does not change things that much except market for traded RINs could diminish dramatically with a lot less speculation.
Apparently as part of same closed door deal, EPA will allow for nationwide E15 meaning extra blending which suits everyone since Ethanol is only one of few oxygenates available in USA since MTBE is banned. Higher RON is good for your engine.
Also, as part of deal White House agreed to support pushing for Producer Tax credit for Biodiesel in budget that needs to be done before Mar15. Senator Grassley and the new Ambassador to China (ex-Governor of Iowa) who have an open line to Trump have done some good work. Mar 15 is an important date in your calendar as this is the date when US must pass a budget and raise the national debt ceiling. This 2016/17 budget will most probably pass with a tax extender package as this is the only way to pass all the tax breaks and benefits necessary for every American to file their taxes on April 15. Without this tax extender package, Americans will get the greatest tax increase in a decade and GOP will be toast. I doubt that there will be a repeal of Obama care at this stage unless there is such a massive tax cut included to enhance the appeal which is unlikely considering the little time to debate it before Mar15.
Anyway, it looks like Trump today promised so much for the new budget year starting Oct 1, 2017, that GOP better start working on it soon!
Also, one thing for sure, the idea that Trump was bad for Biofuels is now out of the window, so it will be difficult to stay short bean/rape/palm oil with close to 34 Million MT of Biodiesel to be produced globally in 2017. The only question remaining must be how the relationship of these oils will be maintained because of protectionism bias as clearly BOPO at $100/MT is probably too narrow!