Fri 30Nov2018: ICE gasoil continues to breakdown to $549 as Jan Brent expired today which is usually a reason for weakness. High crack margin on HO still at $25/brl while overall 3:2:1 crack at $14.69/brl – seems like all is well for refiners. Meanwhile the big news for US Biodiesel came out today with a 14.7% increase in the 2020 mandate for D4 and more importantly the unspecified category (D5) could provide an additional 720 Mil gallons already in 2019. The good news for biodiesel is mitigated by the co-processing that refiners will be able to do in 2019. BOGO and POGO are moving higher very quickly with March showing +76 and -24 respectively although as previously mentioned most of this strength comes from strong correction in energy. Meanwhile in EU, RME values remain lofty at +805 spot while q4 shows +725. RED FAME for Q1 now at +210 with a $15 contango to Q2. PME arbitrage remains open although announcement by Indonesia of doubling mandates for 2019 while at same time removing the $50/MT export levy should increase uncertainties in market. Argentina has made strong cases with EU and also in US for removal of CVD on account of changes in their export tax regime and we should be hearing from EU today while US has until next August to decide.

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