Tue 27Nov2018: ICE Gasoil follows crude lower and trading today @ 575/MT while backwardation of dec/apr drops to $11.50 with WTI 200dma crossing 50dma and RSI falling below 30 in oversold territory, but who wants to catch a falling knife? 3:2:1 crack margins has recovered and now trading at 14.98/brl while HO crack still showing $27.87. US Biodiesel production margins negative at -$40/mt as RINs pop to 49 of last week was not to be extended this week as D4 offered at 41cpg which seems incongruent with the BOGO move. BOGO now trading at +28…we have seen a move from Nov 1 from -60 to +28 or almost $90/mt mostly led by a sharp gasoil drop as bean oil values have only moved down by $20/mt. In EU the spread between RME & FAME finally closing in a bit to 653 as FAME finally moved higher with Q1 FAME now trading over +200. PME arbitrage now wide open. The election results make RFS reform rather unlikely in the new congress but agency interference will most likely continue. Trade is expecting RVOs on Nov 30.

 

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