Mon 19Nov2018: ICE gasoil retreated to $635 in line with crude oil breakdown and after gasoil backwardation collapsing down to $10.25/mt to April but is rebuilding already at $13.25 since Nov expiry. HO crack remains very strong at $30.75/brl while 3:2:1 remains at $9.55/Brl weighted down by gasoline/naphta. Maintenance season should be winding down over the next few weeks and we should see a resumption of crude demand in US with higher Refinery usage rate which has been down about 10% this maintenance season. EU RME situation has gone completely out-of-control with RED RME premium now at +870 for spot while remainder of Q4 at +710 with spread with FAME at +325 for Q1. RED FAME trading at +140 for Q1. Obviously with POGO at -144 and BOGO at -25, there should be a large arbitrage for Q2 into EU for Palm Biodiesel but with FAME premiums at +155 only and low gasoil values, it limits optionality with SME until things get clearer on the imposition of countervailing duties. Will RME premium backwardation roll into Q2? All eyes now on EPA who should be unveiling the RVOs this week. We have a lot on our plates this next few weeks with OPEC meeting and also trade discussions btw US/China – my view is that we should see higher gasoil flat prices.

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