Mon 22Oct2018: Gasoil moves a bit higher at $716 as backwardation to Apr19 widens to +$14/mt. Heat crack margin also moves higher to $28.45 telling us something is up as Nov WTI futures expires signalling end of a weakening trend. US Biodiesel still marred by poor margins despite increase in HO but D4 RINs following depressed state of ethanol RINs as impact of E15 weighs on market. 15 days to midterms that will set the tone for RVO (Renewable Volume Obligations) by end of Nov. In EU, situation with Rhine river causing logistical nightmare for supply chain of all refined products. RED RME spot has gone to +500 while Q4 offered at +405 and spread over RED FAME now 240/mt. Crop progress shows that we just went over the hump on Soya with 53% harvested; now storage for the remainder of this crop will be critical and would expect continued pressure on basis and then futures. BOGO ended today at -69/mt while POGO at -$161 and expect continued pressure on both despite exceptional arbitrage into EU. On the forex front, we are probably not too fare for CNH to reach 7 while Indian Rupee still vulnerable to Crude prices. In South America, the Brazilian Real is defying all expectations of emerging markets with a strong rebound to 3.67 ahead of elections next week end.


Record-low Rhine levels bring widespread disruption across energy and commodities


Published by SOLFUELS

Commodity trade with wide experience in Agriculture, Energy & Biofuels

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